The Final Sprint to the Finish Line
We are now entering the final stretch of the election campaign. Advance voting is behind us, and nearly one in four voters chose to cast their ballot early (1.5 M people). Here’s a look back at the final stretch of the campaign and the impact the debates had on it.
The Winners and the Loser of the Leaders’ Debates
Since the beginning of the race, the frontrunner has been Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. His main opponents should be informed of this, since it was not apparent during the three leaders’ debates. The candidate sailing alone toward a majority government was not the target of any particularly forceful attacks from the other leaders. The only arrows aimed in his direction concerned the referendum. However, that issue was brought into every debate topic, making the leaders appear completely disconnected from reality. I am thinking in particular of the moment when CAQ leader Christine Fréchette launched into an attack against the referendum during a discussion on health care at the Noovo-Crave debate. The PQ leader appeared solid and even identified areas of common ground with his opponents. He delivered strong performances, allowing him to maintain and increase his lead just days before the vote.
The other winner of the debates was Conservative leader Éric Duhaime, who had the only truly clear economic agenda at the table. He launched effective attacks against his opponents, but was above all authentic in his desire to reduce bureaucracy and ease Quebecers’ tax burden. The proof that his pitch was successful is that every party except Québec solidaire is now moving in the same direction. On October 5, many voters may prefer the original to the copy. His strong performances, combined with a generally well-run campaign, should allow him to enter the National Assembly, potentially with around a dozen allies.
The learning curve from one debate to the next benefited Liberal leader Charles Milliard. In the final debate, he appeared combative and more effective than he had been the previous week. He stood out as the only federalist at the table. It remains to be seen whether his slow start to the campaign will have cost him a few seats on October 5, but there is no doubt that he has proven himself to be a strong communicator and deserves to make his entry into the National Assembly. Honourable mention also goes to Québec solidaire leader Ruba Ghazal, who, without making too many waves, spoke effectively to left-leaning voters in Montreal who live in closely contested ridings. Her performances may give her reason to hope that she can hold on to a few ridings, but she did not create a “wow” factor that would allow her to expect significant gains.
The major loser of the debates was outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette. She demonstrated a lack of clear ideological direction and delivered performances that were at times overly aggressive. It was clear that the leader had lost her bearings and that, in the absence of an election platform, she had resorted to pointing fingers at her opponents. With tariffs no longer serving as the central issue of the campaign and the debates, she appears to have lost momentum and is heading toward defeat.
The Post-Debate Period
We are six days away from the vote, and the trends are clear: the PQ is headed for a strong mandate, the Liberals will form the opposition, the Conservatives will finally enter the National Assembly, and the CAQ is threatened with extinction. We will see whether the final week changes the picture, but the winners of the debates appear to be on track for a successful night on October 5.
