Monthly intelligence on the Canada–Greece political and economic corridor: what happened, and why it matters.
This Month at a Glance
At the Canada–EU Summit in Montreal on 29 and 30 October, the two sides launched their Alliance for the Future, the partnership first announced in Strasbourg in September. The phrase everyone had come to hear, Canada as the EU’s first associate member, was removed from the joint declaration the day before leaders sat down. In an interesting turn of events, Carney and von der Leyen ran with it anyway. So where does the partnership actually stand? Agreed in substance, undefined in form, and open to whoever engages early. This issue follows the alliance out of the summit, and then through a corridor month that ran from the inauguration of the Skouries mine in Halkidiki to an electoral earthquake in Belgrade.
- Whats in a name? Dropped from the declaration on objections led by Germany, “Associate Member” was reclaimed on stage by Carney and von der Leyen, and scheduled for definition by the 2027 Canada–EU Summit, right when Greece takes the EU Council Presidency.
- The alliance delivers: A digital trade agreement, a competition agreement, supercomputing access, and up to $2.5 billion to double production of the waterbomber Greece is first in line to receive.
- Serbia’s earthquake: The Student List won outright, 140 of 250 seats on 53 percent, on the highest turnout since 1992, and Vučić conceded on election night.
- Bulgaria decides: Iliana Iotova won the 1 November runoff by roughly nineteen points, after a first round the published polls had misread by double digits.
Politics & Brussels
Whats in a name? A partnership in limbo.
From associate membership to an ever-closer association, and back again
The Canada–EU Summit opened in Montreal on 29 October, with Prime Minister Mark Carney hosting Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, and its most consequential decision had been made the day before it began: every reference to Canada as an “associate member” was removed from the draft declaration after objections led by Germany. Why? German officials wanted the substance of the partnership defined before any label with legal implications was attached to it. The agreed text speaks instead of “an ever-closer association of Canada to the EU, short of full membership itself”, to be defined by the 2027 Canada–EU Summit. And then, with the text settled, the leaders put the word straight back on the table. “We’re in the process of forging a new alliance for the future, with Canada as an associate member,” Carney said as the summit closed; the nomenclature, he added, does not matter. Von der Leyen went further than she had in Strasbourg: full membership is impossible “because of geography”, so what is on offer is “association without accession”.
But it really isn’t as superficial as a name dispute. There is real substance here. For example, negotiations closed on a Canada–EU Digital Trade Agreement, “CETA for a digital world” in Costa’s phrase, and on a second-generation Competition Agreement. Canada joined the EuroHPC supercomputing programme, talks opened on deeper Erasmus+ participation, and association to Horizon Europe is now a stated goal. The needle was pushed on defense and resources too: a second SAFE contract went to Montreal’s Galvion. More substantive than that, a treaty framework will now let the European Investment Bank invest in Canadian critical minerals, work begins on joint stockpiling, negotiations open on Galileo access with IRIS2 to follow, and feasibility studies will examine Canadian LNG for Europe and a transatlantic data cable. The calendar is fixed as well: regular summits, joint ministerial committees, and 2027 as the moment the partnership, whatever it is finally called, receives its definition.
Why it matters
When leaders keep using a word their own lawyers have just deleted, the politics is running ahead of the law. That is the real story of Montreal. The EU is testing a new way of binding a country to itself, sector by sector instead of treaty first, and Canada is the test case: if the model holds, it becomes the template for every partner that wants into Europe without joining it. The legal definition arrives at the 2027 summit, in the half-year when Greece chairs the EU’s agenda, which puts Athens on the critical path of a European precedent. Until then the relationship is being written in the files, from minerals to defence to AI, and the files reward those who arrive before the lawyers.
Canada’s month on the southeastern flank
On 13 October, in Athens, Canada and Greece signed a General Security of Information Agreement, Ambassador Sonya J. Thissen signing for Canada with Defence Minister Nikos Dendias present. The agreement sets the framework for exchanging classified information between the two governments and their contractors; Ottawa reads it commercially as much as militarily, framing the announcement around market access for Canadian industry. A week later Prime Minister Mark Carney travelled to Ankara and Istanbul, the first dedicated bilateral visit to Türkiye by a Canadian Prime Minister; he and President Erdoğan launched a Canada–Türkiye Strategic Partnership built on a three-year action plan, a defence memorandum with no procurement contracts attached, and free trade negotiations expected to open in November.
Why it matters
Before defence contracts, co-production or joint programmes can even be discussed, two governments need a legal way to share classified information; this is what the Agreement in Athens has provided. That is why this dry, procedural signature matters more than an announcement at a podium, which, can be considered often as political posturing. Having said that, signing with Greece and sitting down in Ankara within the same week reads as method: a middle power rearming at speed keeps both Aegean doors open and lets execution decide where the work lands. The Greek file has moved from courtship to delivery; the measure from here is the pace at which paper becomes programmes. Georges Rigas takes up the agreement’s commercial half in this month’s Trade Talk, below.
TRADE TALK WITHE GROGES RIGAS · EXCLUSIVE TO THE UPDATE
New General Security of Information Agreement Could Unlock Defence Procurement Opportunities
On 13 October, Canada and Greece signed a General Security of Information Agreement, enabling the two countries to share classified information, particularly with regard to defence intelligence and technical data on weapons systems. The agreement aims to strengthen Canada–Greece defence cooperation, leverage specialised expertise and advanced technologies, and enhance maritime security, infrastructure protection and efforts against transnational threats. Beyond raising shared information-security standards, it has the potential to unlock commercial opportunities, particularly in defence procurement. That said, the agreement is an enabler rather than an assurance of market access: the commercial payoff depends on whether firms secure partnerships, qualify for specific contracts, and demonstrate that their capabilities meet procurement needs.
Major investments may benefit. In November 2024, Metlen opened its Canadian headquarters in Calgary, initially focused on energy; the conglomerate is also a defence manufacturer, holding an exclusive partnership with KNDS France to produce the VBCI Philoctetes armoured vehicle in Greece, and it could use the agreement to expand its Canadian presence into defence procurement. New players may enter the market as well. The agreement could help connect the Greek defence-industrial ecosystem, from Theon to Intracom Defence to the EFA Group, with Canadian procurement and innovation networks, and the same holds in reverse for Canadian companies such as CAE, MDA Space and Bombardier. Potential areas of cooperation include aerospace, defence electronics, simulation, surveillance and maritime security.
Why it matters
as Canada and Greece both embark on a modernisation of their defence capabilities, the GSOIA is timely and relevant for companies in the defence and technology industries seeking new markets for their highly specialised products. Its commercial impact will ultimately depend on how well companies convert it into concrete procurement opportunities.
Georges Rigas is a research associate at the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) in Montreal, working on Canada’s trade diversification efforts.
Industry & Sectors
The Alliance Delivers.
Via EU-Canada Summit, new financing doubles the waterbomber line Greece is first in line for
Among the Alliance for the Future’s deliverables is Greece’s awaited waterbombers. On 30 October, De Havilland Canada announced an agreement with the Government of Canada and Export Development Canada for up to $2.5 billion in financing to double production of the DHC-515 waterbomber, with investment across its Canadian sites, additional aircraft slots beginning in 2030, and the transaction expected to close by the first quarter of 2027. In the company’s words, the commitment will ensure more waterbombers are produced sooner. Greece ordered seven of the aircraft through a government-to-government contract of roughly 361 million euros approved by the Hellenic Parliament in 2024, holds the first DHC-515 ever assembled, and expects its first delivery in 2028. The inaugural issue of this Update, back in June, led with that aircraft taking shape in Calgary; five months later, the Canada–EU summit financed the production line.
Why it matters
Europe’s purpose-built water-bomber fleet runs through a single production line. That line is purely Canadian. Climate has turned a niche aircraft into strategic infrastructure, which is why the queue rather than the price became priority; every summer makes the argument clearer. Doubling production is the answer to the demand signal Europe sent through rescEU. Thankfully this shortens the wait of the seven aircrafts Greece has ordered. It is also the cleanest early test of the new alliance: if Canadian industrial capacity can be moved to meet European civil protection, the partnership’s larger promises become easier to believe.
Via EU-Canada Summit, new financing doubles the waterbomber line Greece is first in line for
On 14 October, Vivartia announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell 100% of Evergood, its food-services arm, to Recipe Unlimited Corporation, Canada’s largest full-service restaurant company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Fairfax Financial since 2022. Evergood manages a portfolio of more than 575 restaurants across five brands that need no introduction to anyone who has spent an afternoon in a Greek city: Goody’s Burger House, Everest, Flocafé Espresso Room, La Pasteria and Jackaroo, operating through a franchise-led street and mall network as well as locations across the Greek travel sector, from airport terminals to motorways and passenger ferry routes.
Recipe’s Chief Executive Frank Hennessey said the company looks forward to working with Evergood’s management team and building on the platform to create growth opportunities in Greece and internationally. The context makes the deal larger than the sum of its shopfronts. Fairfax, Prem Watsa’s holding company, is already the largest Canadian investor in Greece through its position in Eurobank, so the acquisition deepens an existing conviction rather than testing a new market. There is also a neat geographic symmetry: Recipe is headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, the same suburb of Toronto where Greek retailer Jumbo is currently fitting out its first Canadian store.
Why it matters
Index upgrades measure what capital thinks; acquisitions show what it does. A month after FTSE confirmed Greece’s developed status, Fairfax bought into the Greek high street itself. This is telling for the economy as a whole: owning Goody’s and Everest is a bet on Greek households and what they spend, a deeper form of confidence than any upgrade from FTSE. The corridor’s consumer lane now runs at scale in both directions, Canadian capital behind brands every Greek knows, a Greek retailer opening in suburban Toronto. When capital this patient moves from tracking a market to owning its habits, the re-rating has stopped being a forecast.
The Balkan Update
Selected developments across Southeast Europe, curated for Crestview by Lyubomir Metodiev, Legal and International Business Advisor, Sofia.
Serbia’s protest movement wins a majority. Bulgaria and Serbia both go to the polls on 25 October, four days before the Canada–EU summit in Montreal, though for very different reasons.
The Bulgarian presidential race. Bulgaria elects its president and vice-president on a joint ticket, and the incumbent enters the race in the strongest position. President Iliana Iotova, who has served as head of state since January, when she succeeded Rumen Radev following the resignation that ultimately made him Prime Minister, is running together with BTA Director General Kiril Valchev. Her clearest challenger is Andrey Gyurov, the former deputy governor of the central bank whom she herself appointed caretaker Prime Minister in February, and who is now running with Georgi Kandev on a pro-euro platform. The deeper question, however, is institutional: will voters use the presidency to reinforce the governing centre and hand Radev additional leverage, or will they prefer to build a counterweight?
Bulgaria elects Iotova to a full term. Iliana Iotova led Andrey Gyurov by just 2.8 points in the first round, well short of her double-digit lead in the polls. She won the 1 November runoff by 57.6 percent to 39.5 on roughly 29 percent turnout, becoming Bulgaria’s first woman elected president. Iotova won by mobilizing Prime Minister Radev’s voters and by absorbing most of the pro-Russia electorate after party leaders from the specter endorsed her. Bulgaria’s two elected offices now belong to the same project; A “president of peace” who opposes military aid to Ukraine takes office in a NATO state whose coast was under attack on election week. On 29% turnout, how much of the country stands behind either candidate?
Romania’s next test is the budget. Parliament approved Luca Niculescu’s minority cabinet by 280 votes to 58. The Liberals and the Hungarian minority party backed him without taking cabinet seats. He will need outside votes again to pass the 2027 budget.
Black Sea attacks reach Greek shipping. Sea drones struck the Greek-managed Contship Jet off Bulgaria’s Cape Kaliakra on 28 October as it sailed for Constanța. Bulgarian forces rescued all 18 crew members before the ship sank.
Montenegro advances without a deadline. On 12 October, the EU provisionally closed three more chapters in Montenegro’s accession talks, bringing the total to 21 of 33. At Croatia’s request, EU leaders dropped the proposed year-end target for the rest.
Why it matters
Athens and Ottawa will watch how Serbia’s new majority and Bulgaria’s president approach Russia and Ukraine. Romania’s budget and Montenegro’s EU talks show how much still turns on an ally’s vote. The immediate risk for trade is offshore. Even if Constanța stays open, higher war-risk premiums could make Black Sea grain more expensive to ship.
Crestview on the Ground
In Toronto this month, Crestview curated a panel on rural population decline at the fifth Delphi Economic Forum Toronto, held on 19 October at the Omni King Edward Hotel in partnership with The Hellenic Initiative Canada. The evening before, Crestview was proud to sponsor THI Canada’s tenth-anniversary Oloi Mazi Gala at the Palais Royale, where Justice Andromache Karakatsanis, the longest-serving justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, delivered the keynote. Our work on this corridor consists of understanding both of its rooms; in October, for two evenings, they were the same room.
From The Embassy of Canada
Critical minerals, officially. The Canada–EU Summit capped a busy month for Canada in Greece. Canadian miner Eldorado Gold and its Greek subsidiary Hellas Gold officially opened the Skouries mine, the culmination of more than a decade of work and an investment the company puts above two billion US dollars, and immediately a significant piece of the Greek economy, with roughly 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper to be produced each year. Prime Minister Mitsotakis highlighted the mine’s copper as complementary to Metlen’s aluminium, bauxite and future gallium production in making Greece a serious player in the EU critical-minerals arena.
Innovation, from Nunavik to Thessaloniki. Professor of journalism Aphrodite Salas of Concordia University in Montreal screened her documentary The Flowing River at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, under a recently signed Erasmus+ agreement between the two universities. The film, a product of collaborative journalism, is a powerful testament to the leadership of isolated communities, specifically Inukjuak in Nunavik, confronting climate challenges, and although Nunavik and Greece are very different places, the parallels with Greek island communities facing their own climate pressures are easy to draw.
People to people, as always. Ambassador Thissen was also in Canada for the Delphi Economic Forum Toronto, the annual event bringing Greece and Canada together on the economy and our cooperation. The very last theme of the new Alliance for the Future is people-to-people connections, and it is an area where Canada and Greece have long excelled: filoxenia is a concept shared across our borders, and we welcome the ever-growing traffic between us.
What we are watching
- The road to the 2027 Canada–EU Summit: where the “ever-closer association”, associate membership by any other name, is due to receive its definition, in the half-year of Greece’s Council Presidency.
- Canada–Türkiye FTA talks (November): the first negotiating round, and what it signals for Canadian industry across the region.
- Serbian government formation: a cabinet due within thirty days of official results, the choice of Prime Minister, and the presidential election that must follow before year’s end.
- Skouries commercial production: the Q4 declaration that would close the ramp-up chapter.
- Jumbo’s first Canadian store: the Vaughan Mills opening, guided for around year-end.
ATHENS · OTTAWA · NEXT ISSUE: December 2026
The Canada–Greece Update is prepared by Crestview Strategy’s Athens practice, which advises clients on public affairs and government relations across the corridor. It is provided for general information purposes and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. DRAFT · NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION.
