The departure of François Legault decisively marks the end of a political cycle in Quebec. After seven and a half years at the helm of the Quebec state and over 27 years of public service, the Premier’s imprint on the political landscape is undeniable. His withdrawal triggers a period of transition and instability that demands a rigorous strategic assessment from organizations.
CAQ Leadership and Transition
The approximately 20,000 members of the CAQ will face the significant task this Sunday, April 12, 2026, of electing a new leader and, more importantly, a new Premier. We are currently in the final stretch of a race that may be closer than what people initially thought between former Economy Minister Christine Fréchette and former Education Minister Bernard Drainville.
The designated individual will have a window of less than six months to govern before the October electoral deadline. Although the new leader will have a few weeks to manage the transition at the Honoré-Mercier Building, the margin for maneuver remains narrow.
What to expect during this transition period?
The simple answer is a high degree of movement.
The new Premier will immediately seek to project an image of renewal to reverse heavy downward trends in the polls. In the days following the election, we will witness the formation of a new Cabinet. This shuffle is expected to favor elected officials ready to run again in October, while some ministers who have announced their departure will likely step aside. In line with the commitments made by both candidates, a reduction in the size of the Cabinet is anticipated.
This instability will extend to ministerial offices. Aware of the current government’s precarious position, some strategic political staff may begin transitioning to the private sector, thereby weakening the institutional memory of these offices just as the new leader attempts to score quick wins.
That said, this will not stop the new Premier from going all-in to quickly make their mark. Regardless of the race’s outcome, government priorities will refocus on the cost of living, state modernization, and the agility of public services, including increased openness to the private sector.
Delivering Results Amidst Parliamentary Congestion
Even if the new CAQ leader takes the reins of a strong majority government, their field of action will be extremely limited. First, the prorogation of the National Assembly, while necessary for the transition, will cut up to three weeks of critical legislative work—weeks that are usually pivotal in the parliamentary calendar.
April is typically when the National Assembly conducts its study of the credits. This exercise consumes all the National Assembly’s resources in committees for two weeks. Furthermore, the National Assembly must schedule approximately six days of debate in the Salon rouge regarding the new Premier’s inaugural speech.
Consequently, the new government’s window of opportunity to introduce new legislation and pass major bills—such as Bill 1 on the Constitution of Quebec and Bill 5 regarding authorizations for priority and national-scale projects—will be extremely limited. The government may be tempted to pass some of these via closure (gag order) during the final days of parliamentary proceedings around June 12, 2026.
New Ministers Will Have Little Time to Make Their Mark
For any organization, the challenge will be twofold: dealing with ministers who must master complex files in record time and navigating a civil service that will shift into caretaker mode.
Not only will some ministers need to quickly assemble new political staff, but they will also require accelerated briefings from the civil service on major departmental files. This step is particularly vital as they must immediately defend their departments during the study of the credits barely a month after their appointment.
Furthermore, the civil service may not necessarily act as an ally to the government over the next six months. State employees follow the polls like everyone else. Historically, the administration is hesitant to commit to structural reforms just months before an election where the outcome could call everything into question.
Aside from the major priorities dictated by the new Premier and the Conseil exécutif, the state will essentially be on pause. An effective government relations strategy must therefore prioritize continuity over disruption between now and the fall.
Toward a Profound Renewal of the National Assembly
The election of the new CAQ leadership will serve as the informal starting signal for the pre-election period. From that point on, the competitive landscape will sharpen, and polling trends will begin to shape the contours of the October deadline. Regardless of the election results, one certainty remains: the Quebec political landscape is about to undergo a profound mutation.
The National Assembly that emerges in the fall of 2026 will be largely renewed. Many influential figures who defined the two CAQ mandates have already confirmed their departure from public life. This political vacuum will be filled by a new cohort of elected officials from various parties, some of whom are destined to quickly become pivotal players, whether within the next Cabinet or on the opposition benches.
In the context of this five-party race, electoral volatility is at its peak, making predictions impossible. Is Quebec heading toward a Parti Québécois or Liberal government? Will we see a CAQ surge or the official entry of the Conservatives into the National Assembly? The verdict at the ballot box, whether it leads to a majority or minority government, will redefine the rules of the game for all your files.
Rigorous monitoring of star candidates and party platforms over the coming months will be crucial to navigating this turbulent political landscape. The evolution of your government relations strategy will depend directly on the ability to navigate through this ambient instability. We remain by your side to decode these movements and ensure the long-term viability of your interests in this new political cycle.
