Energy and Security
What we are tracking
Saudi Arabia resumed crude exports through its East-West pipeline after repairs, Bloomberg reported on September 28. The restart restores the alternative export route the kingdom has relied on since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Drone strikes launched from Iraq on September 10 had knocked the pipeline out of service for more than a week, and operations restarted on September 22, according to The Economist. Saudi Aramco spent last week testing the line and building pressure before overseas shipments resumed. The route’s Red Sea endpoint is also getting outside protection. On September 24, France agreed to send “soldiers, radars and defense systems” to help secure energy infrastructure in Yanbu, President Emmanuel Macron said, “not to engage in any conflicts but to protect this site.” Macron did not rule out further assistance and framed the move as part of France’s effort to secure energy supplies and lower fuel prices at home. The pledge followed one of the largest Houthi attacks since the conflict reignited, with the Saudi-led coalition saying it shot down six ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif, The New York Times reported. The wider market remains strained. Brent climbed to $109 a barrel after the pipeline attack and the Houthi offensive, then fell back to around $102, while U.S. diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon.
Why it matters
The restart restores the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s wartime export strategy and eases some of the acute supply pressure of the past fortnight. France’s deployment shows European governments now treat the security of Saudi export infrastructure as directly tied to their own fuel prices. It follows Britain’s decision to provide an aerial refuelling tanker, stepping in where Washington has held back. The route remains exposed, however, with the Iraqi militias and Houthi forces behind this month’s attacks still active.
What to watch
How quickly Aramco returns the pipeline to full capacity; whether France expands its military assistance and whether other European governments follow; and whether refined product prices ease as Red Sea exports recover.
Regional Security
What we are tracking
U.S. officials have warned that strengthening ties between Yemen’s Houthis and al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, pose an “escalatory” threat to regional stability, the Financial Times reported. According to security experts, the Houthis have sold weapons to al-Shabaab and trained fighters in drone and explosive use. They have also made frequent visits to the group’s stronghold at Jilib in southern Somalia, using the relationship to install radar and other equipment to monitor shipping from the African coast. As many as 1,500 Somali fighters have trained with the Houthis in Yemen, according to Matt Bryden, former head of the UN panel of experts on Somalia. A spokesperson for U.S. Africa Command said the alliance gives the Houthis “deeper access” to disrupt maritime corridors in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean. The warning comes as the Houthis consolidate their advance down Yemen’s Red Sea coast and continue attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a missile that hit a fuel tank at Riyadh’s airport on September 19, The Economist reported.
Why it matters
The relationship gives the Houthis a foothold on both sides of the Bab al-Mandeb, through which a tenth of global trade flows. It is a way “to squeeze it from both sides,” said Tim Lenderking, former U.S. special envoy for Yemen. Analysts warn that if al-Shabaab learns to operate Houthi-supplied missiles and drone boats, the threat could extend into the western Indian Ocean. That would widen the maritime risk zone well beyond the Red Sea.
What to watch
Whether Houthi-supplied weaponry, including surface-to-air missiles al-Shabaab has reportedly sought, appears on the Somali battlefield; whether Somali piracy, already at its highest level in a decade, converges with the Houthi-al-Shabaab network; and how the UAE’s naval base at Berbera in Somaliland factors into regional responses.
Global Security
What we are tracking
Five British men arrested over a suspected terrorist plot near RAF Fairford, a UK air base used by the U.S. Air Force for strikes on Iran, were released on bail on September 28, the Financial Times reported. The men, all in their twenties, were detained by armed police on September 27. A local farmer had reported seeing hooded and masked men flee from vans blocking a road near the base. Laurence Taylor, head of UK Counter Terrorism Policing, said the men remain suspects under stringent conditions. He added that police are considering whether the activity was committed by proxies or by individuals working on behalf of a foreign state. The Iranian embassy in London categorically rejected any suggestion of Tehran’s involvement. President Trump criticised the bail decision, saying Washington “would not have released them.” Prime Minister Andy Burnham chaired a Cobra meeting on the incident. MI5 reported last year that more than 20 Iran-backed plots had been uncovered in the UK over the preceding year.
Why it matters
If a foreign-state link is confirmed, the plot would mark the Iran war reaching Western homelands through the infrastructure used to prosecute it. It also raises questions for London and Washington about base security, with the witness accusing officials of “dropping the ball.” And it adds to the domestic political pressure on allied governments hosting U.S. operations.
What to watch
Whether charges follow and whether investigators confirm any state or proxy involvement; whether the UK tightens security at bases supporting U.S. operations; and whether the incident affects British political support for U.S. use of RAF facilities.
Diplomacy
What we are tracking
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday for talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Bloomberg reported. Netanyahu’s office said the meeting focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing regional challenges. The visit came days after The Atlantic published an investigation into warnings Israel received before the October 7, 2023 attack. According to The Atlantic, Egypt’s then intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, flew to Israel on September 26, 2023 to warn that Hamas appeared to be mobilizing for a major attack. Sheikh Mohamed separately called Netanyahu to warn of a possible imminent attack and urged economic concessions to Gaza. Haaretz first reported the call earlier this month. Netanyahu has denied it and threatened to sue, while The Atlantic confirmed the call with multiple officials. The handling of pre-October 7 warnings has become perhaps the central issue in next month’s Israeli election.
Why it matters
The visit underscores the durability of UAE-Israel ties six years after normalization and through three years of regional war. The Atlantic’s reporting also suggests that Emirati and Egyptian intelligence read the threat from Gaza more clearly than Israel’s leadership did. That is a reminder of the role Arab partners play in regional security, and of how closely Israeli domestic politics and Gulf diplomacy are now intertwined.
What to watch
Whether either government publicly addresses the reported pre-October 7 call; how the warnings debate shapes Israel’s election next month; and whether UAE-Israel ties translate into deeper security cooperation as the Iran war continues.
Strategy and Outlook
What we are tracking
The Economist argues that the Iran war will end America’s role as the Middle East’s pre-eminent power, however the conflict concludes. With the war entering its eighth month, Gulf allies have absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars in lost energy and tourism revenue and infrastructure damage, and most will see their economies contract in 2026. The U.S. and Iran held three hours of indirect talks at the UN on September 22 through Qatari envoys, their first since June, but positions remain far apart. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reportedly advised Washington to maintain the blockade and pursue a new deal rather than return to the June MOU. Most Gulf states share that view, with Qatar and Oman the outliers. On U.S. bases, the naval base in Bahrain is unlikely to return to its pre-war size of close to 10,000 people. It is also unclear whether Washington still wants Qatar’s planned $10 billion upgrade of al-Udeid. Gulf states are meanwhile diversifying. Saudi Arabia has announced a mutual defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey and a Red Sea maritime coalition of more than a dozen countries. The UAE has signed a ten-year deal to buy and co-produce Ukrainian drones.
Why it matters
The question is no longer whether America stays in the region, but what role it plays. The idea of Washington as the Gulf’s security guarantor, the partner to call “anytime we have a problem,” as one Gulf official put it, is fading, and no outside power is positioned to replace it. Gulf states are therefore building new alliances, suppliers, and domestic defence industries. That shift will reshape procurement, partnerships, and investment flows across the region.
What to watch
Whether Gulf states negotiate new rules on how U.S. bases can be used; which new defence partnerships and co-production deals follow; and whether ad hoc coalitions like Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea alliance develop into durable security arrangements.
Capital and Investment
What we are tracking
L’imad Capital, a unit of Abu Dhabi’s newest sovereign wealth fund, is laying the groundwork to raise money from outside investors, Bloomberg reported on September 29. Its parent, the $300 billion L’imad Holding, is chaired by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed. L’imad Capital is being shaped into a global investment vehicle that will back private equity and other funds and make direct deals. It plans to first build a track record through direct investments, co-investments, and partnerships, and could raise third-party capital as early as next year, though no final decisions have been made. The unit has shortlisted chief executive candidates with private equity, infrastructure, and private credit experience. Under a proposed restructure, L’imad Holding would sit at the top as a holding company with stakes in major Abu Dhabi firms, while L’imad Capital would operate more like a buyout firm. The fund absorbed ADQ in January and announced plans last month to take Abu Dhabi Ports private. It is also circling an aviation business operated by Apollo as the emirate builds alternatives to Hormuz.
Why it matters
The move marks another step in Abu Dhabi’s evolution from a deployer of sovereign capital to a platform that attracts institutional money. It follows Mubadala Capital opening to outside investors and MGX raising nearly $50 billion from regional funds, global pensions, and other institutions. Abu Dhabi’s entities wield about $2 trillion and have kept dealmaking through the war. The emirate is positioning itself as a manager of global capital, not just a source of it.
What to watch
Whether L’imad Capital names a chief executive and senior hires in the coming months; whether it launches a first third-party fundraise in 2027; and how its logistics and transport deals, including AD Ports and Apollo’s aviation unit, fit into Abu Dhabi’s Hormuz bypass strategy.
Spotlight Feature: What We’re Listening To
Foreign Affairs’ Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, on September 21 about the Iran war, the UAE’s rift with Saudi Arabia, and its approach to Israel, Gaza, and Sudan. Gargash argues that Iran’s neighbours largely opposed the war yet have paid some of its highest costs, and that there is still little consensus on what a new Middle Eastern order should look like or what it means for ties with Washington and Beijing.
Listen to the full conversation
Related articles
- Saudi Arabia’s Crucial Oil Pipeline Starts Exports After Repairs (Bloomberg)
- US Warns Houthi Ties With al-Shabaab Threaten Red Sea Trade (Financial Times)
- Five Men Arrested Over Alleged RAF Fairford Terror Plot Released on Bail (Financial Times)
- Netanyahu, MBZ Discuss Ways to Bolster Ties During Visit to UAE (Bloomberg):
- Egypt’s Warning to Israel (The Atlantic)
- America Is Stepping Back From a Region It Never Managed to Remake (The Economist)
- Abu Dhabi’s Newest Buyout-Style Fund Plans to Raise Outside Cash (Bloomberg)
